Lay the points with the Chiefs and enjoy the show on Sunday afternoon.Smith-Schuster will make his return for this game after missing last week with a concussion. The Rams have the worst against the spread margin (8.3 points per game) in the NFL this season and they simply do not have the firepower to even make this game close. The Rams offensive line is outmatched and their pass defense has no chance of slowing down the red-hot Kansas City offense. Since 2003, teams with an 80% win percentage or greater are 23-11-2 (67.6%) against the spread when they are favored by more than two touchdowns. In his career, Andy Reid is 4-1 against the spread in games where his team is favored by 14.5 points or greater. In the three games under Mahomes that the Chiefs have closed greater than a two–touchdown favorite, KC has averaged 32 points per game. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in three of their past six games, and this is one of the easier matchups they will get all season. The Chiefs team total of 28.5 feels rather low in this game, and I wouldn’t blame anybody for attacking this game in that manner. Since Week 7, this defense is 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 29th versus the pass. The Rams cannot get pressure on the quarterback, ranking dead last in pressure rate at only 21.8% (per Sharp Football). Mahomes has now thrown for over 300 yards in five straight games and the Chiefs convert first downs passing the football at the highest rate in the NFL. Now they will have to face the most dangerous passing attack in the league. LA has been solid versus the run this season, but their pass defense is in shambles, allowing over 10 yards per pass last week to Andy Dalton. If the Rams want to have any chance of keeping this game close, their defense will have to step up in a big way. Perkins is going to be under duress if the Chiefs take an early lead in this game, and the situation is conducive to turnovers forced by the Chiefs defense and short fields for the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs defense has a 9.9% adjusted sack rate on defense, third best in the NFL. The Rams offensive line has an adjusted sack rate of 8.8%, 25th in football. If this game calls for Perkins to drop back and pass, the lack of pass protection for the Rams is a major concern. How long can we expect the Rams offense to stick to the run if they fall behind early? Now, the interior of their offensive line will have to face off with the number one rated interior defensive lineman in football according to PFF, Chris Jones. The Rams’ offense in 2022 has averaged 26.1 yards per drive, 30th in the NFL. Arcuri) who failed to make the opening day roster at the offensive line’s most important position. Nsekhe has held his own at left tackle and without him, this offense led by a first time NFL starter might be down to a seventh-round rookie (A.J. To make matters worse, center Brian Allen will miss this game and third string left tackle Ty Nsekhe is a game-time decision. Los Angeles is last in the NFL in adjusted line yards at 3.92 according to Football Outsiders. The Rams are desperate for any type of spark to ignite this running game. Perkins rushed for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns for the University of Virginia over two seasons and set numerous school total yardage records. Perkins will bring a much needed element to the Rams offense this week in his first career NFL start.
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